PWC's prediction of Athens 2004 Medals

PWC writes

The following factors were found to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games since 1988:

• Population;
• Average income levels (measured by GDP per capita at PPP exchange rates);
• Whether the country was previously part of the former Soviet bloc (including Cuba in this case);
• Whether the country is the host nation; and
• Medal shares in the previous Olympic Games

 

Model Estimates of Athens Olympics Medals Totals as Compared to Sydney 2000 Results
Country	Model Estimate of Medal Total in Athens 2004	Medal Total in Sydney 2000	Difference
1. US	70	97	-27
2. Russia	64	88	-24
3. China	50	59	-9
4. Germany	45	57	-12
5. Australia	41	58	-17
6. France	31	38	-7
7. Greece	29	13	+16
8. Italy	28	34	-6
9. Great Britain	25	28	-3
10. South Korea	24	28	-4
11. Cuba	23	29	-6
12. Romania	23	26	-3
13. Ukraine	21	23	-2
14. Netherlands	21	25	-4
15. Japan	20	18	+2
16. Poland	17	14	+3
17. Hungary	17	17	0
18. Belarus	15	17	-2
19. Canada	15	14	+1
20. Brazil	15	12	+3
21. Spain	13	11	+2
22. Bulgaria	13	13	0
23. Sweden	12	12	0
24. Mexico	11	6	+5
25. Indonesia	11	6	+5
26. Switzerland	10	9	+1
27. India	10	1	+9
28. Norway	10	10	0
29. Czech Republic	10	8	+2
30. South Africa	9	5	+4
Top 30 total medals	703	776	-73
Other Countries	226	153	+73
Total medals	929	929	0